Vietnam has historically been on a strong trajectory of economic growth – which the Investment Manager believes is expected to persist over the next few years, underpinned by multiple structural growth and economic tailwind factors.
A story that began back in 1986 with economic reform, the socialist-oriented market economy has become one of the fastest growing economies in the world over this period. Vietnam’s economy continues to look promising with an expected GDP growth of 6.5% - 7% over the next 3 years, supported by strongly structural features coupled with favourably economic tailwinds.
The growing, young, and highly employed population is an ideal combination for sustained economic growth.
Vietnam is the 15th most populous country in the world with 97 million people. The population is expected to grow to 120 million people by 2050.1
The country has a young population with median age of just 32.5 years.2
Unemployment of just 2.5% and historically low levels.1,3
Rapidly rising middle-income group, growing from 13% in 2016 to 26% in 2020.1
1: The World Bank Group, 2: Worldometer, 3: General Statistics Office of Vietnam
Vietnam is at the heart of Asia Pacific.
Vietnam is well placed to capture global supply chain diversification from China due to its proximity to China, low wages, and ever improving business regulations.1,2,3
With over 3,000km of coastline and 320 ports, Vietnam is readily accessible for trade through to the Mekong region (including, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar, and the southern provinces of China) with a population of over 250 million people.3
Growing tourist industry which saw 18 million international visitors in 20191 and is expected to return strongly post COVID.
Abundant natural resources including coal, crude oil, metals, and animal & food products.4,5
1: The World Bank Group, 2: National Wages and Productivity Commission, 3: Vietnam Briefing, 4: Worldometer, 5: Australian Trade and Investment Commission
Well managed economic reform that is expected to continue to succeed.
Vietnam is a stable one-party state with economic goals set to focus on private sector growth as follows:1,2
One and a half million private companies making up 55% of GDP by 2025, versus the 700,000 currently representing 42%.
Two million private companies accounting for 60%-65% of GDP by 2030.
Average economic growth of 6.5%-7% during 2021-2025, versus 5.9% for the previous five years.
Increasing per capita GDP to $4,700-$5,000 by 2025, from $2,750 at the end of 2020 and $1,331 in 2010.
The Vietnamese Dong has remained stable over the past several years compared to other Asian countries.
Balanced inflation rate of 2.9% between 2014-2020.3
Increasingly popular Asian destination for foreign direct investment.3
Vietnam continues to enter free trade agreements and has strong ties within Asia, Europe and across the Pacific.
1: Bloomberg, 2: Vietnam Briefing, 3: The World Bank Group